New UDP report on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios

January 11, 2016

UNEP DTU Partnership has released the report Uncertainty in Greenhouse-gas Emission Scenario Projections, which outlines approaches to quantify the uncertainty associated with national-level projections of greenhouse-gas emissions, by describing practical applications of those approaches in Mexico and South Africa.

The report aims to promote uncertainty quantification, because quantifying uncertainty has the potential to foster more robust climate-change mitigation plans. To this end the report also summarises the rationale for quantifying uncertainty in greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections.

At present few, mainly G20, countries are conducting uncertainty quantifications. Their efforts are typically restricted to comparing projections obtained through different models. While valuable, the information provided by such comparisons tells only one part of the story: other, complementary approaches exist that remain under utilised.

In any country, the larger the expenditure for climate change mitigation, the closer climate change plans will be scrutinised to ensure that they are robust to as many plausible future conditions as possible. Uncertainty quantification is central for achieving this goal.

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