Technological shape and size: A disaggregated perspective on sectoral innovation systems in renewable electrification pathways

The sectoral innovation system perspective has been developed as an analytical framework to analyse and understand innovation dynamics within and across various sectors. Most of the research conducted on sectoral innovation systems has focused on an aggregate-level analysis of entire sectors. This paper argues that a disaggregated (sub-sectoral) focus is more suited to policy-oriented work on the development and diffusion of renewable energy, particularly in countries with rapidly developing energy systems and open technology choices. It focuses on size, distinguishing between small-scale (mini-grids) and large-scale (grid-connected) deployment paths in renewable energy. We explore how the development and diffusion of solar PV and wind technology evolve in these sub-sectoral systems. We find that innovation and diffusion dynamics differ more between small and large than between wind and solar. This has important analytical implications because the disaggregated perspective allows us to identify trajectories that cut across conventionally defined core technologies. This is important for ongoing discussions of electrification pathways in developing countries. We conclude the paper by distilling the implications of these findings in terms of the requirements and incentive mechanisms that shape different pathways.